Just wanted to share this because it’s so well put. An email alert from Reason magazine included a link to a Facebook post by Nassim Taleb that perfectly describes The Anointed, even though he doesn’t use that specific label.
Nassim Who? Yeah, I had to look him up. Here’s what Wikipedia says about him:
Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese-American essayist, scholar, statistician, former trader, and risk analyst whose work focuses on problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty. His 2007 book The Black Swan was described in a review by the Sunday Times as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.
And here’s part of his Facebook post:
What we are seeing worldwide, from India to the UK to the US, is the rebellion against the inner circle of no-skin-in-the-game policymaking “clerks” and journalists-insiders, that class of paternalistic semi-intellectual experts with some Ivy league, Oxford-Cambridge, or similar label-driven education who are telling the rest of us 1) what to do, 2) what to eat, 3) how to speak, 4) how to think… and 5) who to vote for.
With psychology papers replicating less than 40%, dietary advice reversing after 30y of fatphobia, macroeconomic analysis working worse than astrology, microeconomic papers wrong 40% of the time, the appointment of Bernanke who was less than clueless of the risks, and pharmaceutical trials replicating only 1/5th of the time, people are perfectly entitled to rely on their own ancestral instinct and listen to their grandmothers with a better track record than these policymaking goons.
Perfect. Now I have to go order at least one of his books.
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Here is my paraphrase of something Taleb says in “The Black Swan”:
A nerd is someone who, when told that a fair coin has come up heads 99 times in a row, believes that the chances of it coming up heads on the 100th toss is exactly 0.50. A non-nerd (the kind of person who tends to succeed in life), on the other hand, immediately assumes the coin is loaded – despite having been told IN THE RUBRIC that it is fair. And there you have it: a nerd is someone who wants to know the rules, and then sticks within them. Do you believe in finding out the rules and obeying them – or in making up the rules and having everyone obey you?
Taleb is a really great thinker – and, like many of those, he is contrary, arbitrary, unpredictable,and hard to follow for those who like everything tidy. (“Organization is the last refuge of a tired mind”. – Colin Kapp).
One of his most important ideas, featured in “Fooled by Randomness”, is that human psychology systematically biases our perception of our success, failures and abilities. When we succeed, we assume it’s because of our talent. When we fail, on the other, we tend to feel it’s because of circumstances, bad luck, force majeure, etc. In consequence, the world is full of people who think they are brilliant just because they had a run of good luck. (As a trader, you can see where Taleb got this idea from!) Worse still, the world is full of people who think they are experts on finance, global strategy or nutrition just because they have a talent for conning others.
I strongly recommend rfeading ALL his books. They are chock-full of great stuff, and he doesn’t tend to repeat himself.
Four of his books are considered to be a 4-volume set, “Incerto”. Somewhere I read where he recommended reading them in the reverse order that he published them as he drilled deeper and deeper as he went. Going in reverse, each can lay the groundwork for the previous one. I have only read the last, “Antifragile”. The other 3 in reverse order are “The Bed of Procrustes”, “The Black Swan”, and “Fooled by Randomness”. I can’t speak to the other 3, but Antifragile definitely gets into the issues mentioned in his quote.
I think “The Black Swan” is a great place to start.
I had no idea so many readers were already familiar with the guy. I feel left behind.
The Black Swan is quite good, I recommend it.
When I read something like that, it’s like a breath of fresh air for my mind.
Before buying one of his books, consider going to
http://www.econtalk.org/archives.html
then searching for his name. He’s done about eight EconTalk podcasts (hosted by economist Russ Roberts), including one on The Black Swan. I find his work to be fascinating, and even when I disagree with him, I always learn from him.
Jim
Besides being a genius, Taleb had perfect timing for his book. It came out right as the Fed, Ginnie May, Freddie Mac, Dodd & Frank teamed up to create the biggest financial Black Swan in the history of the galaxy.
Fortunately, both teams in D.C. swooped in and pumped money into all of the zombies while pushing all of us regular folk into the tar pit. Next one is going to make the 2008 Black Swan look like Tweetie Bird.
Cheers
I heartily recommend Fooled by Randomness. An epiphany for me — because I hate being fooled, especially by myself!
Here is my paraphrase of something Taleb says in “The Black Swan”:
A nerd is someone who, when told that a fair coin has come up heads 99 times in a row, believes that the chances of it coming up heads on the 100th toss is exactly 0.50. A non-nerd (the kind of person who tends to succeed in life), on the other hand, immediately assumes the coin is loaded – despite having been told IN THE RUBRIC that it is fair. And there you have it: a nerd is someone who wants to know the rules, and then sticks within them. Do you believe in finding out the rules and obeying them – or in making up the rules and having everyone obey you?
Taleb is a really great thinker – and, like many of those, he is contrary, arbitrary, unpredictable,and hard to follow for those who like everything tidy. (“Organization is the last refuge of a tired mind”. – Colin Kapp).
One of his most important ideas, featured in “Fooled by Randomness”, is that human psychology systematically biases our perception of our success, failures and abilities. When we succeed, we assume it’s because of our talent. When we fail, on the other, we tend to feel it’s because of circumstances, bad luck, force majeure, etc. In consequence, the world is full of people who think they are brilliant just because they had a run of good luck. (As a trader, you can see where Taleb got this idea from!) Worse still, the world is full of people who think they are experts on finance, global strategy or nutrition just because they have a talent for conning others.
I strongly recommend rfeading ALL his books. They are chock-full of great stuff, and he doesn’t tend to repeat himself.
Also discussed here – https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2016/03/17/the-great-fear/
Four of his books are considered to be a 4-volume set, “Incerto”. Somewhere I read where he recommended reading them in the reverse order that he published them as he drilled deeper and deeper as he went. Going in reverse, each can lay the groundwork for the previous one. I have only read the last, “Antifragile”. The other 3 in reverse order are “The Bed of Procrustes”, “The Black Swan”, and “Fooled by Randomness”. I can’t speak to the other 3, but Antifragile definitely gets into the issues mentioned in his quote.
I think “The Black Swan” is a great place to start.
I had no idea so many readers were already familiar with the guy. I feel left behind.
Birds of a feather . . ..
The Black Swan is quite good, I recommend it.
Good grief. This guy is the very definition of the word articulate. And brilliant.
I haven’t read The Black Swan, but I’m currently halfway through Antifragile and highly recommend it. It’s full of insights similar to the quote that you have referenced.
Sounds like I’ll enjoy his work very much.
When I read something like that, it’s like a breath of fresh air for my mind.
Before buying one of his books, consider going to
http://www.econtalk.org/archives.html
then searching for his name. He’s done about eight EconTalk podcasts (hosted by economist Russ Roberts), including one on The Black Swan. I find his work to be fascinating, and even when I disagree with him, I always learn from him.
Jim
I’ve listened to EconTalk before, so thanks for the tip.
EconTalk is a great podcast where you can occasionally learn something new and insightful. A recent episode on the surprising irreproduceability of published research was eye-opening:
http://www.econtalk.org/archives/2015/11/brian_nosek_on.html
I remember one commentary where rodents behaved differently for male and female researchers. Apparently no one had thought to study that variable or consider it significant. I think it was related to the difference of testosterone levels.
Besides being a genius, Taleb had perfect timing for his book. It came out right as the Fed, Ginnie May, Freddie Mac, Dodd & Frank teamed up to create the biggest financial Black Swan in the history of the galaxy.
Fortunately, both teams in D.C. swooped in and pumped money into all of the zombies while pushing all of us regular folk into the tar pit. Next one is going to make the 2008 Black Swan look like Tweetie Bird.
Cheers
Amen.
I heartily recommend Fooled by Randomness. An epiphany for me — because I hate being fooled, especially by myself!
Also discussed here – https://pjmedia.com/richardfernandez/2016/03/17/the-great-fear/
Good grief. This guy is the very definition of the word articulate. And brilliant.
I haven’t read The Black Swan, but I’m currently halfway through Antifragile and highly recommend it. It’s full of insights similar to the quote that you have referenced.
Sounds like I’ll enjoy his work very much.
Amen.
Been a long time since I last visited your site Tom but came to find something of NNTaleb so here I am writing a comment.
I think you’ll find his book pretty informative and what I gather from his books The Black Swan and Antifragile he is familiar with Taubes since about 2008. A highly recommendable read.
Start with Black Swan, it is well worth reading.
Been a long time since I last visited your site Tom but came to find something of NNTaleb so here I am writing a comment.
I think you’ll find his book pretty informative and what I gather from his books The Black Swan and Antifragile he is familiar with Taubes since about 2008. A highly recommendable read.
Oh, yes, yes you really do! (OR, get you a good MP3 player and listen to interviews with him while you’re mowing the grass or feeding the chickens! Or lying in the grass, feeding yourself! Whatever.)
It almost seems manufactured – feed us unreliable information to keep us uninformed and distrustful. Then, when ‘real’ information pops up, we dismiss it as untrue, especially if it doesn’t support or views.
Start with Black Swan, it is well worth reading.
I love Nassim Taleb. I find his primary strength is to understand the what kinds of basic assumptions people who try to study complex systems make. I think you’ll appreciate him because he takes a similar approach to you; he realizes that the people holding fancy titles in finance and health often do not understand the statistical assumptions being made when they interpret or study new things.
His ire for economists is legendary.
I find he has a strong libertarian streak (however he does believe in bank nationalization).
I find his work is sometimes misunderstood because it’s deceptively simply, but there are nuances to it that befuddle people. For example, his big idea is the the concept of “Black Swans”, which are incidences that have the potential to affect you on levels of magnitude you cannot predict. Consider that he emphasizes the “incidences with levels of magnitude you cannot predict” aspect of it. It’s baked into the concept. Yet journalists and Ph.Ds routinely ask him for “how to prevent the next Black Swan”?
You’re in for a treat Tom.
BTW, I should Fathead to my parents and they have drastically improved their health. I’m Malaysian, and there is a diabetes crisis in my country of origin, and refraining from carbs is anathema. All members of my father’s family has diabetes. He is the only to go low carb, and he is reducing his insulin. He looks healthy and vibrant. I feel much better too, even though at 28 I don’t have type 2 diabetes yet.
I also work in public health, and routinely experience the things high-level scientists do to protect pet theories and years of work. I work in a private think-tank funded by a wealthy philanthropist, so that gives us a great deal of freedom to pursue research that wouldn’t be performed in universities. I personally do research on mercury amalgams, and I see parallels between the dietary suggestions of mainstream doctors, and the beliefs of mainstream dentists on the nature of toxicology.
Great work, please keep it up Tom.
I’m going to have to check this Taleb guy out. Sounds like I’d enjoy his work.
As parents, I think one of the most important lessons we can teach our children is to think for themselves and not blindly accept what our leaders/teachers/experts tell us. Back in 1972, my 6th grade science teacher assured us that in 30 years, there would be no more petroleum left. I thought she was wrong at the time, but was too polite to question her. Took 30 years to prove, just wish I could hunt her down and remind her about that ignorant remark made to impressionable children.
Needless to say, since that day, I rarely take anything that experts say at face value. I have noticed that my physician, who used to nag me relentlessly to take statins, is keeping his mouth shut about them these days. As you remind us regularly, Tom, thank you for the wisdom of crowds and the Internet!
I’ve come to realize that education is all about memory retention and little about comprehension.
Want to make a teacher’s head explode? Ask them WHY 2+2=4.
Oh, do read at least one of his books!
He nails, for example, why applying a Gaussian curve to arbitrary data is fraught with problems. Bill Gates walks into a bar and the average wealth takes a gigantic leap. Even on the East Side of Manhattan. In pickup bars, the average wealth is no doubt at least bi modal, for obvious reasons.
Anyway, he shows why unexpected events are more common than expected and forecasts based on the past are limited. Those of us in NYC remember Hurricane (Or is it Himocane Sandy?) no such storm had hit New York since before the Dutch got here. The MTA is planning on shutting down a major subway line for three years because of storm damage,
there was no protection for flooding, because “It never happened before.”.
Single days that wipe out bank profits back to the beginning of time. People consider banks to be safe, but they end up having to be bailed out at least once per generation.
I just finished reading “The Man Who Saved The Union,” an excellent biography of Ulysses Grant. Banks came to him for a bailout too after over-investing in railroad stocks that didn’t pan out. He told them no. Later Congress passed a bill to inflate the currency to as a “stimulus.” He vetoed the bill and said once we went down the road of producing artificial stimulus by printing money, there would be no way back.
I say dig him up, re-animate him, and give him the Republican nomination.
And here the general consensus is he’s a bad president but then again, the textbook I read back in school always had a pro-authoritarian spin to it.
He’s one of my favorite general, maybe he’ll become one of my favorite presidents too.
The textbooks we read in school portrayed him as a president whose administration was full of scandals. There were cases of people in his administration trading influence for money and favors, but as the biography makes clear, Grant himself played no part in any of it. He was outraged at what people he trusted had done and sacked them when their activities were exposed. He left office with no money to speak of, and ended up writing his autobiography as he was dying of cancer to provide for his family. Fortunately for them, it was a best-seller.
And they didn’t put a bullet in his head? Wow.
He dealt with death threats throughout his time in office, largely because he was determined to enforce the right of freed slaves to vote.
People think politics today are nasty. Check out American Experience on PBS. They have a 2 hour feature on James Garfield that is incredible.
Oh, yes, yes you really do! (OR, get you a good MP3 player and listen to interviews with him while you’re mowing the grass or feeding the chickens! Or lying in the grass, feeding yourself! Whatever.)
I’d probably look for an audiobook. I don’t have much time to sit and read.
It almost seems manufactured – feed us unreliable information to keep us uninformed and distrustful. Then, when ‘real’ information pops up, we dismiss it as untrue, especially if it doesn’t support or views.
I had already read his post and I think he hit this one on the head. I had a moment that reminded me of one of Gary Taube’s talks the other day. I was talking with a friend about the science behind global warming. (we both have questions about the science) and I told him that if you think if you find climate science (or the politics around it) you should check out pharma and nutrition.
I would be careful, from his CV it looks like he is the problem too.
I love Nassim Taleb. I find his primary strength is to understand the what kinds of basic assumptions people who try to study complex systems make. I think you’ll appreciate him because he takes a similar approach to you; he realizes that the people holding fancy titles in finance and health often do not understand the statistical assumptions being made when they interpret or study new things.
His ire for economists is legendary.
I find he has a strong libertarian streak (however he does believe in bank nationalization).
I find his work is sometimes misunderstood because it’s deceptively simply, but there are nuances to it that befuddle people. For example, his big idea is the the concept of “Black Swans”, which are incidences that have the potential to affect you on levels of magnitude you cannot predict. Consider that he emphasizes the “incidences with levels of magnitude you cannot predict” aspect of it. It’s baked into the concept. Yet journalists and Ph.Ds routinely ask him for “how to prevent the next Black Swan”?
You’re in for a treat Tom.
BTW, I should Fathead to my parents and they have drastically improved their health. I’m Malaysian, and there is a diabetes crisis in my country of origin, and refraining from carbs is anathema. All members of my father’s family has diabetes. He is the only to go low carb, and he is reducing his insulin. He looks healthy and vibrant. I feel much better too, even though at 28 I don’t have type 2 diabetes yet.
I also work in public health, and routinely experience the things high-level scientists do to protect pet theories and years of work. I work in a private think-tank funded by a wealthy philanthropist, so that gives us a great deal of freedom to pursue research that wouldn’t be performed in universities. I personally do research on mercury amalgams, and I see parallels between the dietary suggestions of mainstream doctors, and the beliefs of mainstream dentists on the nature of toxicology.
Great work, please keep it up Tom.
I’m going to have to check this Taleb guy out. Sounds like I’d enjoy his work.
As parents, I think one of the most important lessons we can teach our children is to think for themselves and not blindly accept what our leaders/teachers/experts tell us. Back in 1972, my 6th grade science teacher assured us that in 30 years, there would be no more petroleum left. I thought she was wrong at the time, but was too polite to question her. Took 30 years to prove, just wish I could hunt her down and remind her about that ignorant remark made to impressionable children.
Needless to say, since that day, I rarely take anything that experts say at face value. I have noticed that my physician, who used to nag me relentlessly to take statins, is keeping his mouth shut about them these days. As you remind us regularly, Tom, thank you for the wisdom of crowds and the Internet!
I tell my girls to respect their teachers, but also to understand that a lot of what people believe (and teach) turns out to be wrong.
Respect is about behaving well, it doesn’t mean people need to swallow anything blindly.
I’ve come to realize that education is all about memory retention and little about comprehension.
Want to make a teacher’s head explode? Ask them WHY 2+2=4.
Oh, do read at least one of his books!
He nails, for example, why applying a Gaussian curve to arbitrary data is fraught with problems. Bill Gates walks into a bar and the average wealth takes a gigantic leap. Even on the East Side of Manhattan. In pickup bars, the average wealth is no doubt at least bi modal, for obvious reasons.
Anyway, he shows why unexpected events are more common than expected and forecasts based on the past are limited. Those of us in NYC remember Hurricane (Or is it Himocane Sandy?) no such storm had hit New York since before the Dutch got here. The MTA is planning on shutting down a major subway line for three years because of storm damage,
there was no protection for flooding, because “It never happened before.”.
Single days that wipe out bank profits back to the beginning of time. People consider banks to be safe, but they end up having to be bailed out at least once per generation.
I just finished reading “The Man Who Saved The Union,” an excellent biography of Ulysses Grant. Banks came to him for a bailout too after over-investing in railroad stocks that didn’t pan out. He told them no. Later Congress passed a bill to inflate the currency to as a “stimulus.” He vetoed the bill and said once we went down the road of producing artificial stimulus by printing money, there would be no way back.
I say dig him up, re-animate him, and give him the Republican nomination.
And here the general consensus is he’s a bad president but then again, the textbook I read back in school always had a pro-authoritarian spin to it.
He’s one of my favorite general, maybe he’ll become one of my favorite presidents too.
The textbooks we read in school portrayed him as a president whose administration was full of scandals. There were cases of people in his administration trading influence for money and favors, but as the biography makes clear, Grant himself played no part in any of it. He was outraged at what people he trusted had done and sacked them when their activities were exposed. He left office with no money to speak of, and ended up writing his autobiography as he was dying of cancer to provide for his family. Fortunately for them, it was a best-seller.
And they didn’t put a bullet in his head? Wow.
He dealt with death threats throughout his time in office, largely because he was determined to enforce the right of freed slaves to vote.
People think politics today are nasty. Check out American Experience on PBS. They have a 2 hour feature on James Garfield that is incredible.
Anyone who reads a lot of detailed history books knows politics has always been a brutal game. The rumors spread about Grant were pretty outrageous.
And yet some people insist on getting into it. I wouldn’t want any job in public office. I guess that is why I am a Libertarian.
You couldn’t pay me enough to run for office.
I had already read his post and I think he hit this one on the head. I had a moment that reminded me of one of Gary Taube’s talks the other day. I was talking with a friend about the science behind global warming. (we both have questions about the science) and I told him that if you think if you find climate science (or the politics around it) you should check out pharma and nutrition.
I would be careful, from his CV it looks like he is the problem too.
You’d have to explain that one.
First of all, amazing blog! Congratulations!
Nassim Taleb is one of the most interesting thinkers today in my opinion, and it’s funny that you mention him here, because it was after I read an Amazon review by him in 2007 that I started learning about nutrition, and how everything I knew about it was wrong.
Here’s the link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/review/R3MW66SBINF0R7?ref_=glimp_1rv_cl
I strongly recommend including Fooled by Randomness at some point. It is probably his least well-known book, but as is often the case, a lot of his best ideas went into his first book. I see application of it in the financial markets, sports and nutrition “research almost every day. For example, the NE Patriots are considered a dynasty, and to a degree they are, however at least three of their superbowl wins (against the Rams, Panthers and Seahawks) were well within the margin of luck. In the financial markets one can see how the markets move the news rather than the other way around. And in nutrition “research” it is easy to see how studies could easily be rigged by factors outside the study design such as wel the participants are naturally thin or not..all of his work is great though…
First of all, amazing blog! Congratulations!
Nassim Taleb is one of the most interesting thinkers today in my opinion, and it’s funny that you mention him here, because it was after I read an Amazon review by him in 2007 that I started learning about nutrition, and how everything I knew about it was wrong.
Here’s the link: http://www.amazon.com/gp/review/R3MW66SBINF0R7?ref_=glimp_1rv_cl
I don’t get it.
In Australia, all our swans are black.
We’d have to talk about white swans! 😉
I strongly recommend including Fooled by Randomness at some point. It is probably his least well-known book, but as is often the case, a lot of his best ideas went into his first book. I see application of it in the financial markets, sports and nutrition “research almost every day. For example, the NE Patriots are considered a dynasty, and to a degree they are, however at least three of their superbowl wins (against the Rams, Panthers and Seahawks) were well within the margin of luck. In the financial markets one can see how the markets move the news rather than the other way around. And in nutrition “research” it is easy to see how studies could easily be rigged by factors outside the study design such as wel the participants are naturally thin or not..all of his work is great though…
Add me to the list of people recommending Nassim Taleb.
I’d start with ‘Antifragile’ – a great read.
Oh and Art De Vany is a friend of Taleb’s and is mentioned approvingly in Antifragile as the ‘godfather of the paleo ancestral lifestyle’.
I’ve put three of Taleb’s books in my Audible.com wishlist.