{"id":1865,"date":"2010-07-15T20:42:12","date_gmt":"2010-07-16T02:42:12","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/?p=1865"},"modified":"2010-07-15T22:16:35","modified_gmt":"2010-07-16T04:16:35","slug":"correlations-obesity-geography-race-and-cancer","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/2010\/07\/15\/correlations-obesity-geography-race-and-cancer\/","title":{"rendered":"Correlations: Obesity, Geography, Race and Cancer"},"content":{"rendered":"

MSN published the newest state-by-state obesity figures<\/a> on their web site today.\u00a0 Here are the states with the highest and lowest rankings.\u00a0 (Note:\u00a0 in this table and all other tables, I’m skipping Washington, D.C.\u00a0 It’s a city, for Pete’s sake, not a state.)<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1<\/td>\nMississippi<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nAlabama<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nTennessee<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nWest Virginia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nLouisiana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nOklahoma<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nKentucky<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nArkansas<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nSouth Carolina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nNorth Carolina<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>\nCalifornia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>\nNew Jersey<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>\nMontana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>\nUtah<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>\nRhode Island<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>\nVermont<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>\nHawaii<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>\nMassachusetts<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>\nConnecticut<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>\nColorado<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

As you can see, southern states dominate the obesity list.\u00a0 Quite a few articles have been published that attempt to answer the question Why Are Southerners So Fat?<\/em> — that was actually the title of one.\u00a0 I believe we’re looking at two factors, which are in part related:\u00a0 poverty and race.\u00a0 Cheaper foods tend to be high-carb foods, so it would make sense that poor people tend to eat high-carbohydrate diets.<\/p>\n

Tennessee has the third-highest obesity rate.\u00a0 And yet as I’ve mentioned before, I don’t see many fat people in our area.\u00a0 In fact, in a list of county-by-county statistics, I saw that the average adult BMI in our county is 25.\u00a0 Our county also has the highest per-capita income in the state.\u00a0<\/p>\n

But I also believe race plays somewhat of a role apart from poverty.\u00a0 Here’s the same list of states again, with another column showing each state’s rank by\u00a0the African-American proportion of the\u00a0population:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/td>\nObesity<\/td>\nBlacks\/Capita<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mississippi<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alabama<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
West Virginia<\/td>\n4<\/td>\n37<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Louisiana<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kentucky<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n23<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arkansas<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n12<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
South Carolina<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Jersey<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n16<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montana<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rhode Island<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hawaii<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n39<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Massachusetts<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n27<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Connecticut<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colorado<\/td>\n50\u00a0<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

It’s hardly a perfect correlation, but the correlation is there.\u00a0 The southern states tend to\u00a0have a higher proportion of African-Americans than the northern states.\u00a0<\/p>\n

As I mentioned in Fat Head<\/em>, African Americans and Latinos are disproportionately labeled as overweight or obese, and to a large extent, the label isn’t fair.\u00a0 I’ve had a few pinheads in cyberspace accuse me of being a racist for stating that on average, African-Americans and Latinos are genetically pre-disposed to be thicker than whites.\u00a0 They may as well yell “racist!” if I say that those same groups are pre-disposed to have darker skin.\u00a0 We’re talking about physiology here, pure and simple.<\/p>\n

If you look up studies on osteoporosis, you’ll see it stated over and over that African-American and Latina women are the least susceptible.\u00a0 You’ll also find the reason:\u00a0 denser, thicker bones — African Americans in particular.\u00a0 You’ll also see it stated that Asians on average have thinner bones than whites.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Go figure … given the same height, smaller-boned people tend to be lighter, and thicker-boned people tend to be heavier.\u00a0 The thicker-boned people also tend to carry around more muscle.\u00a0 In addition, I’ve seen it stated in research papers that African-Americans on average tend to have bigger thigh muscles — some of the largest muscles in the body.\u00a0<\/p>\n

So if we’re determining who’s overweight or obese by simply (and stupidly) comparing height to weight, African-Americans are going to have the highest BMI, followed by Latinos, whites, and Asians.\u00a0 Yes, people with the highest BMI scores may also tend to be the fattest overall.\u00a0 But the statistics are skewed.<\/p>\n

As long as I was looking up data and making correlations, I decided to have a little fun with another set of statistics.\u00a0 Below are the highest and lowest rates of cancer by state.\u00a0 (#1 = highest rate of cancer, #50 = lowest.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
1<\/td>\nNew Jersey<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
2<\/td>\nMaine<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
3<\/td>\nRhode Island<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
4<\/td>\nKentucky<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
5<\/td>\nMassachusetts<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
6<\/td>\nPennsylvania<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
7<\/td>\nConnecticut<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8<\/td>\nWashington<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
9<\/td>\nMichigan<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10<\/td>\nWest Virginia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
41<\/td>\nTexas<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
42<\/td>\nCalifornia<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
43<\/td>\nMaryland<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
44<\/td>\nMontana<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
45<\/td>\nHawaii<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
46<\/td>\nColorado<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
47<\/td>\nSouth Dakota<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
48<\/td>\nUtah\u00a0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
49<\/td>\nNew Mexico<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
50<\/td>\nArizona<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Northern states dominate the top 10, while the bottom 10 is made up largely of sunshine states.\u00a0 Most likely, we’re looking at the effects of vitamin D.\u00a0 I was curious as to why relatively sunny states like Kentucky and West Virginia have such high rates of cancer, so I looked up smoking statistics<\/a>.\u00a0 Sure enough, West Virginia ranks #1 and Kentucky ranks #3, after Indiana.<\/p>\n

But here’s what’s really interesting:\u00a0 New Jersey, with the highest overall cancer rate, ranks #49 in smoking.\u00a0 Maine ranks #27, and Rhode Island ranks #35.\u00a0 In those northern states, it’s not smoking that’s causing the high cancer rate.<\/p>\n

In previous posts, I’ve tried to pound home the point that correlations don’t tell us much.\u00a0 Traits that are correlated often have independent causes … and yet researchers and health reporters too\u00a0often assume that if two traits are related, one must be causing the other.<\/p>\n

Look at the table below, where I’ve put the cancer rankings alongside the obesity rankings.\u00a0 (I’ve removed Kentucky and West Virginia because of the high smoking rate — we’ll call that a confounding variable.)<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
State<\/td>\nObesity<\/td>\nCancer<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mississippi<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n24<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Alabama<\/td>\n2<\/td>\n25<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Tennessee<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Louisiana<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Oklahoma<\/td>\n6<\/td>\n31<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Arkansas<\/td>\n8<\/td>\n38<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
South Carolina<\/td>\n9<\/td>\n33<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
North Carolina<\/td>\n10<\/td>\n35<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
California<\/td>\n41<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
New Jersey<\/td>\n42<\/td>\n1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Montana<\/td>\n43<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Utah<\/td>\n44<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Rhode Island<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Vermont<\/td>\n46<\/td>\n26<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hawaii<\/td>\n47<\/td>\n45<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Massachusetts<\/td>\n48<\/td>\n5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Connecticut<\/td>\n49<\/td>\n7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Colorado<\/td>\n50\u00a0<\/td>\n30<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

You know what I see there?\u00a0 I see evidence that obesity reduces your risk of developing cancer.\u00a0\u00a0 Or, to adopt the style I often see in health-article headlines, LOWER BODY WEIGHT\u00a0RAISES CANCER RISK.<\/p>\n

Somebody get T. Colin Campbell on the phone …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

MSN published the newest state-by-state obesity figures on their web site today.\u00a0 Here are the states with the highest and lowest rankings.\u00a0 (Note:\u00a0 in this table and all other tables,… Read more »<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,45],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1865","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-bad-science","category-random-musings"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1865","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1865"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1865\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1881,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1865\/revisions\/1881"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1865"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1865"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.fathead-movie.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1865"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}